{"id":15808,"date":"2023-01-09T15:35:08","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T15:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/t4t-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=15808"},"modified":"2024-06-11T09:43:36","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T06:43:36","slug":"gold-glistens-in-the-eyes-of-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.t4trade-be.com\/ko\/gold-glistens-in-the-eyes-of-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold glistens in the eyes of investors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t4trade.com\/en\/what-drives-the-price-of-precious-metals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Gold<\/strong> finished 2022<\/a> virtually flat after a tumultuous year, seeing its price <strong>surge to all-time highs<\/strong> around the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, yet as the <strong>Fed rushed to tame rogue inflation<\/strong> <strong>by aggressively hiking rates<\/strong>, its prices quickly pared most of its gains. The <strong>precious<\/strong> kickstarted this year strong, as <strong>worldwide recession worries<\/strong> and speculations for a <strong>pivot in the Fed\u2019s monetary policy stance<\/strong> helped put a floor under gold\u2019s prices and helped the shiny metal\u2019s advance to its eight-month highs, in today\u2019s trading session. In this report we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"360\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/gold-report-analysis.png\" alt=\"Gold bars encircled by gold coins and accompanied by candlestick charts, representing the dynamics of precious metal trading.\" class=\"wp-image-15814\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-divergent-interpretations-of-the-us-employment-data\"><strong>Divergent interpretations of the US employment data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the <strong>initial jobless claims<\/strong> figure dropped more than expected as only 204k filed for unemployment benefits in the past week. Furthermore, the <strong>ADP employment report<\/strong> recorded an <strong>upside surprise<\/strong>, as the US economy added 235k new jobs in the month of December higher than the 150k expectation and job creation nearly doubled compared to the previous figure of 127k of the previous month. The results once again <strong>validated the view <\/strong>that the <strong>US labour market<\/strong> <strong>remains resilient and healthy<\/strong>, despite growing fears for an <strong>impending recession<\/strong>. The favorable results give more room and confidence to the <strong>Fed<\/strong> to continue on with its restrictive monetary policy efforts at <strong>taming inflation<\/strong>, obstructing it from <strong>becoming deeply entrenched within the US<\/strong> <strong>economy<\/strong>. As a result, the <strong>greenback<\/strong> <strong>found<\/strong> renewed <strong>support<\/strong> and rose from its recent slump, while on the contrary the <strong>precious<\/strong> <strong>saw<\/strong> its 4-<strong>day winning streak snap<\/strong>, due to their inherent <strong>negative correlation<\/strong>. On Friday however, the highly anticipated <strong>NFP report<\/strong>, despite showcasing that the US labour market retained its ability to create jobs amidst a challenging environment, it evoked a <strong>strange reaction from the market<\/strong>. The <strong>non-farm payrolls<\/strong> figure reported an increase of 223k, higher than the expectation of a mere 200k, yet came less than the previous month figure. The <strong>unemployment rate<\/strong> eased to 3.5%, beating, both expectations and the last month\u2019s reported rate, while the month-on-month <strong>average hourly earnings<\/strong> eased more than expected at 0.3% when compared to the previous month of 0.6%. The <strong>dollar<\/strong> was <strong>sharply down<\/strong> \ud0dd\ud558\uace0 <strong>gold<\/strong> alongside US equities, managed to close the day notably higher, in the greens, as market participants assessed the results and ended up siding with the rationale that the <strong>Fed would inadvertently be forced to pivot by the end of the year<\/strong>. Possibly another data point adding to the <strong>fueled bets for<\/strong> <strong>slower<\/strong> <strong>Fed hikes<\/strong> was the <strong>deterioration<\/strong> in the <strong>Services<\/strong> <strong>sector<\/strong> of the US economy which unexpectedly contracted at its steepest pace in more than two and half years amid weakening demand, according to the December ISM Services PMI figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"360\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/gold-metal-market.png\" alt=\"Gold bars alongside gold candlestick charts, symbolizing the relationship between physical assets and market analysis.\" class=\"wp-image-15816\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-market-pushback-against-fed-narrative\"><strong>Gold Market pushback against Fed narrative<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There has been without a doubt, an observed <strong>deviation in the perception<\/strong> of where the target rate will peak in 2023, <strong>between<\/strong> the <strong>Fed<\/strong> \ud0dd\ud558\uace0 <strong>the<\/strong> <strong>market<\/strong> in recent months. In its <strong>December meeting minutes the Fed<\/strong> explicitly stated its <strong>unanimous<\/strong> <strong>resolve<\/strong> to continue on with <strong>more rate hikes<\/strong> in going forth and <strong>pause<\/strong> throughout the remainder of the year, despite the rising risks for <strong>tipping the economy into a recession<\/strong>. Whereas on the flip side the market actively prices in that the <strong>Fed will flinch<\/strong> and will <strong>start cutting rates<\/strong> as its <strong>overtightening efforts<\/strong> could cripple the <strong>growth trajectory<\/strong> of the US economy. Tomorrow Tuesday, the market will be paying close attention the scheduled <strong>speech<\/strong> by <strong>Fed Chair Powell<\/strong> and on Thursday market participants will brace for the <strong>latest<\/strong> <strong>round of crucial CPI data<\/strong>. According to estimates the year-on-year inflation rate for December is expected to decelerate to 6.5% from the 7.1% of the previous month and should the actual rate meet the expectations we may see the <strong>USD<\/strong> <strong>retreat<\/strong> to lower ground and <strong>boost<\/strong> <strong>appetite<\/strong> for the <strong>shiny metal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\uae30\uc220 \ubd84\uc11d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/xau-usd-4h-chart-09-01-2022-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"A comprehensive gold diagram offering insights into the intricate movements of the precious metal market.\" class=\"wp-image-15813\" width=\"850\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 1833 (S1), 1818 (S2), 1800 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 1850 (R1), 1865 (R2), 1880 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at <strong>XAUUSD<\/strong> 4-hour e observe <strong>gold\u2019s incredible run-up<\/strong> to the $1880 level where it is currently found trading after a few volatile sessions. We hold a <strong>bullish outlook bias<\/strong> given the <strong>ascending trendline<\/strong> highlighting the <strong>commodity\u2019s<\/strong> upward trajectory alongside the <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart which registers a value of 70, showcasing the <strong>extreme bullish sentiment<\/strong> surrounding the <strong>bullion<\/strong>. Moreover, the fact that the price action trades closely to the upper bound of the <strong>Bollinger Band <\/strong>adds to our case for a <strong>bullish outlook<\/strong>. We should note however, that should an extreme move to the upside occur, breaking past the upper <strong>Bollinger band<\/strong> aggressively, we may expect a correction lower as the price action could get ahead of itself. Should the <strong>bulls reign over<\/strong>, we may see the definitive <strong>break<\/strong> above the $1880 (R1) level and the price action rising and possibly challenging the $1900 (R2) <strong>resistance barrier<\/strong>. Should on the other hand the <strong>bears take over<\/strong>, we may see the price action retracing its steps, <strong>break<\/strong> below the $1865 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and head to lower ground closer to the $1850 (S2) <strong>support base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclaimer: <\/strong><em>This material is for general informational &amp; educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation. T4Trade is not responsible for any data provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold finished 2022 virtually flat after a tumultuous year, seeing its price surge to all-time highs around the&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":15815,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-metals","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.2 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Gold glistens in the eyes of investors | Oil-Outlook<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We aim to shed light on the catalysts 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